Evidence

William of Occam

Evidence is the set of tangible and intangible things used to support facts which will ultimately prove a point, such as:

• Documents created by parties for the purpose of later proving something,
• Video footage of an event,
• Audio recordings of a sound or conversation,
• Testimony of witnesses to an event,
• Opinion of an expert regarding something specialized, or 
• Opinion of an ordinary person about every day occurrences.

"Evidence" sort of has two meanings: in colloquial terms evidence means those things which someone points to in order to prove a point (however valid they may be), but really it means those things which actually prove that point. These two aspects are two sides of the same coin, and go hand-in-hand. In order to prove his or her point, a person will point to things and say, "see, the moon is made of cheese...and this is my evidence." If you accept those facts, then you're agreeing that what he's called evidence is evidence.

Because of this dichotomy, a credulous person can be duped by evidence proffered by a proponent merely because that person calls it evidence (the moon looks like cheese, thus it is). However, the questioning person will only accept evidence in its second sense: Does the proffered evidence really support the facts necessary to prove anything? (The speaker's never tasted regolith and cannot know.) 

How do you know whether the evidence proves a particular point? That depends largely on the point. For instance, consider these scenarios and which facts you would need to prove that the speaker is telling the truth:

1. A friend tells you that she is pregnant.
2. A friend tells you that your dog is pregnant.
3. A friend tells you that you are pregnant.
4. A friend tells you that her sister is pregnant by divine intervention.

Take a second to think about what you need to know in each situation to know that your friend is telling the truth.

Generally speaking, you'd need to know something about how pregnancy works. Using only your common sense, you can apply this to eliminate false propositions: Is the subject female? Is she fertile? Is she young enough to actually be pregnant? If the answer to any of these questions is "no," then your friend is probably lying or deceived.

If the answer to the common sense questions is "yes," other facts might be needed to convince you, depending on the situation.

1. Your Friend's Pregnancy.

Your friend's statement that she is pregnant may well suffice. Ultimately, its her own business and her pregnancy may not much affect your life. At that point you congratulate her and start planning her baby shower. No more is required.

2. Your Dog's Pregnancy.

Now you might be really interested. How did she come by this information? You might inquire whether she is a veterinarian or a breeder. Or perhaps she has personal knowledge: her male was seen breeding with your female dog. Or maybe her dog exhibited some similar symptoms which led her to this conclusion.

If she affirms that she has some specialized reason to know, you might be satisfied and take appropriate action depending whether you want a litter of adorable pups to care for. Thus, the standard of proof is a bit higher because the facts are more removed from your friend and more personal to you.

3. You are Pregnant.

Now, assuming you do not already have evidence that you are pregnant, you might be astonished and really interested to know why she thinks you are pregnant. You might apply further common sense, and argue with her: "No, I am not pregnant. I just had my period... or... I take the pill... or... its been a long time..." If she persists despite your protestation, you might politely change the subject.

However, if you have no independent reason to doubt her, you are unlikely to take her at her word, whatever evidence she presents —  your healthy glow, your protruding middle, your craving for chocolate covered eggplant slices — in the end, if she really piqued your curiosity, you'll take a pregnancy test. The result of that test will be the evidence you'll ultimately trust to know if you are, in fact, pregnant.

4. Divine Intervention in Pregnancy.

Religious beliefs aside, to satisfactorily prove that a friend was divinely impregnated will require some extraordinary evidence on your friend's part.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. --Carl Sagan

Knowing how pregnancy works, it is hard for me to imagine facts which would prove immaculate conception. Perhaps meeting the divine figure might suffice, but how would this godly figure manifest. If he manifested as a man, I'd believe that he impregnated her, just not that it was a miracle. You might make other assumptions, but the simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

Frustra fit per plura quod potest fieri per pauciora. [It is futile to do with more things that which can be done with fewer.] --William of Occam

If he manifested in some incorporeal form, I'd still be wondering what the mechanism for the pregnancy was. I'd have to question whether there was an exchange of male reproductive fluid, even without intercourse. Genetic tests could narrow the possible number of fathers, and could establish that a male partner did, in fact, contribute to the fertilization.

A physical examination of the woman would reveal whether insemination occurred. A cross-examination of the woman could reveal whether there were any periods during which she was blacked out -- or might force her to admit that she had had intercourse. --- Suffice it to say, that there are tests which can be performed to prove that the egg which formed her fetus was fertilized by a sperm cell. And until those tests are exhausted, few of us but the most credulous would buy the divine intervention argument.

Accept as evidence only that which provides a rational explanation of a claim. In law as in life, put up or shut up.

Your Bear.